EUR surrendered without a fight. Overview for 12.04.2024

The primary currency pair is sliding down on Friday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0682.

The strengthening of the US dollar is associated with low expectations from the US Federal Reserve's interest rate for this year. In January, the market expected six interest rate cuts; in March, it expected three, while today, it only anticipates two. Such forecasts are due to the publication of robust US statistics that increase the inflationary component.

The European Central Bank's meeting concluded yesterday. The interest rates remained unchanged.

In the commentary, the ECB mentioned that it would be appropriate to lower the interest rate if the core inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary policy gave more confidence in the CPI nearing the target levels. The regulator mentions the possibility of easing monetary conditions in its accompanying statement for the first time.

In fact, from December to now, the ECB has gone from firm statements to soft remarks.

Some market participants have already begun anticipating aggressive ECB rate cuts in the upcoming months, but such forecasts are unlikely to be grounded.